Model used: Basic
Polish Claims on L'viv & Shift Away From Ukraine
Fueled by a surge in nationalism, Poland pivots away from supporting Ukraine and instead focuses on irredentist claims on L'viv. This scenario envisions Poland undertaking a massive military buildup and issuing an ultimatum to Ukraine regarding the city, risking alienation from NATO.
Before WWII, Lwów (L'viv) was the third-largest city in Poland, and its post-1945 incorporation into the Soviet Union required the resettlement of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Poles to formerly German territories that Poland acquired, such as Wrocław.
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Model used: Basic
Polish Claims on L'viv & Shift Away From Ukraine
Fueled by a surge in nationalism, Poland pivots away from supporting Ukraine and instead focuses on irredentist claims on L'viv. This scenario envisions Poland undertaking a massive military buildup and issuing an ultimatum to Ukraine regarding the city, risking alienation from NATO.
Before WWII, Lwów (L'viv) was the third-largest city in Poland, and its post-1945 incorporation into the Soviet Union required the resettlement of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Poles to formerly German territories that Poland acquired, such as Wrocław.
Supports Poland's territorial claims and assertive actions towards Ukraine
Opposes Poland's territorial claims and assertive actions towards Ukraine, favoring continued support for Ukrainian sovereignty
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