Carney consolidates a majority and locks in the post-American pivot

Canada spent the February-to-May window converting Mark Carney's diversification rhetoric into signed paper. The most consequential single trip was the prime minister's February 27 to March 2 visit to India, the first by a Canadian leader since the 2023 Nijjar assassination froze the relationship. In Mumbai and New Delhi, Carney and Narendra Modi signed five memorandums worth roughly C$5.5 billion, finalised the Terms of Reference for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement targeting US$50 billion in two-way trade by 2030, and announced a C$2.6 billion Cameco uranium contract that will deliver about 22 million pounds to India between 2027 and 2035. The CEPA negotiations are explicitly aimed at concluding by year-end.

Carney rolled straight from India into Canberra and Tokyo. On March 5, he became the first Canadian prime minister to address the Australian Parliament in nearly two decades and signed a partnership with Anthony Albanese covering critical minerals, defence, and AI safety, including Royal Canadian Air Force training on the Australian-built Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar starting mid-2026 as part of NORAD modernisation. On March 6, he and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in Tokyo covering defence, energy, technology, and trade, with expanded Royal Canadian Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force exercises. South Korea's Hanwha Ocean and Germany's TKMS submitted final bids for the C$20 billion Canadian Patrol Submarine Project on March 2, with Hanwha sweetening its industrial-offset offer in late April.

The European track moved in parallel. At the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, Canada formalised participation in the EU's Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loans-for-weapons mechanism after a December agreement, paying a 10 million euro contribution in exchange for 80-percent Canadian-content eligibility on procurements drawing from the broader 1.25 trillion euro ReArm Europe envelope. Also at Munich, Defence Minister David McGuinty signed a bilateral defence cooperation agreement with Denmark explicitly framed as a response to the Trump administration's annexation threats against Greenland and Canada itself; both countries are participating in NATO's new Arctic Sentry initiative. On March 26, Ottawa announced Canada had hit the NATO two-percent-of-GDP defence spending target for the first time, with C$63.4 billion in 2025 outlays, while committing to the Hague Summit's 2035 goal of 3.5 percent core defence plus 1.5 percent in security-adjacent investment.

Ukraine policy intensified. On February 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, Carney announced a C$2 billion package including 66 new General Dynamics LAV-6s and 383 Roshel Senator armoured vehicles, plus a C$200 million tranche from NATO's Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List and a C$50 million top-up to the Drone Capability Coalition. The same package added 21 individuals, 53 entities, and 100 shadow-fleet tankers to Canada's Russia sanctions list, and lowered the oil price cap from US$47.60 to US$44.10 per barrel. Carney participated in the Coalition of the Willing virtual meeting that week and renewed Operation UNIFIER for another training cycle.

The China file showed cautious thaw rather than reset. The deal Carney negotiated in Beijing on January 16 took effect inside the window: on February 27, Beijing zeroed out the 100 percent canola-meal tariff for the rest of 2026, and on March 1 the canola-seed combined duty fell from roughly 84 percent to 14.9 percent. Foreign Minister Anita Anand publicly welcomed the implementation on March 4, but the relationship remains structurally adversarial on security and human rights.

The US relationship continued to deteriorate. On April 19, Carney told Canadians that the country's economic dependence on the United States had shifted from strength to weakness and must be corrected, citing the 50 percent steel and aluminum tariffs and 25 percent auto tariffs as the most acute irritants. He coordinated closely with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on an April 24 call ahead of the July 1 USMCA review, having jointly launched the Canada-Mexico Action Plan 2025-2028 to coordinate positions on rules of origin and critical minerals. Domestically, Carney converted the strategic posture into political durability on April 13, when Liberal byelection sweeps in Terrebonne, University-Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest pushed the caucus to 174 seats and gave him a working majority through 2028.